The ex-dividend-day behavior of stock prices: the case of Japan

We provide a comprehensive empirical analysis of stock pricebehavior around the ex-dividend day in Japan. We find that pricesrise on the ex-day and that dividend-related tax effects appearto be secondary. Returns around ex-dividend days are dominatedby the proximity of many ex-days to the fiscal year end. Excessreturns of 1 percent, which are independent of any dividend-relatedconsiderations, are higher than round-trip transaction costson medium-sized transactions. Prices seem to imply selling pressurebefore and buying pressure at the start of the new fiscal year.These trading patterns appear to be motivated by intercorporatemanipulative trading around the end of the firms' fiscal year,which are unrelated to dividends.     

Japan’s banking crisis: An event-study perspective

We calculate abnormal stock returns for Japanese non-financial companies around major events associated with the banking crisis (1995–2000), and find that not all companies were equally sensitive to the malaise of the banking sector: the most affected were small, leveraged, low-tech companies with low credit ratings and low market to book ratios. This is consistent with “credit crunch” theories (companies with limited access to financial markets are sensitive to changes in bank lending) and with claims that innovation is rarely financed by bank debt. We do not find much evidence on the alleged misallocation of loans to support ailing bank clients.     

Budget constraint of a firm and economic theory

Summary Firms in reality are subject to budget constraints which general equilibrium theorists have paid little attention. Using Morishima (1950, 1992) model, this paper deals with firms that are subject to budgets pertaining to sales and investment decisions, and proves the existence of a general equilibrium. We show that an economy with firms subject to budgets does not necessarily satisfy the efficiency proposition, and clarify how the total profit maximum condition in the Arrow-Debreu (1954) type economy ensures an efficiency in a limited dynamic sense.The author is grateful to Professors J. Iritani, H. Nagatani, and K. Urai who gave useful comments on occasions of Saturday Workshop on Economic Theory and Mathematics. He is also grateful to Professor M. Kaneko for his useful comments on an earlier version of the paper Kuga (1993), to which this article is closely related.     

What causes business cycles? Analysis of the Japanese industrial production data

We explore what causes business cycles by analyzing the Japanese industrial production data. The methods used are spectral analysis and factor analysis. Using the random matrix theory, we show that two largest eigenvalues are significant. Taking advantage of the information revealed by disaggregated data, we identify the first dominant factor as the aggregate demand, and the second factor as inventory adjustment. They cannot be reasonably interpreted as technological shocks. We also demonstrate that in terms of two dominant factors, shipments lead production by four months. Furthermore, out-of-sample test demonstrates that the model holds up even under the 2008–2009 recession. Because a fall of output during 2008–2009 was caused by an exogenous drop in exports, it provides another justification for identifying the first dominant factor as the aggregate demand. All the findings suggest that the major cause of business cycles is real demand shocks.     

The role of uncertainty in the term structure of interest rates: A GARCH-ATSM approach

This article examines the roles of uncertainties regarding various macro-variables in determining risk premiums of bond yields. We develop a multivariate GARCH-VAR to quantify uncertainties regarding inflation, real activities and monetary policy as time-varying conditional variances. We jointly estimate the multivariate GARCH and no-arbitrage bond pricing equations using a maximum likelihood method. The results indicate that the inflation uncertainty is the largest contributor to the dynamics of long-term yields since the 1980s, while the monetary policy uncertainty also plays noticeable roles.     

The impact of post-merger integration on the customer–supplier relationship

While the impact of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) on internal stakeholders has generated considerable empirical study, comparatively little academic attention has been paid as to how external stakeholders such as customers are affected by, and respond to, M&A activity. This study adopts case-study methodology to illuminate how the customer–supplier relationship is affected by post-merger integration processes in the business-to-business context, with the aim of increasing our understanding of why customers respond to M&A in the ways that they do. The findings highlight the importance of a set of critical customer relationship variables through which post-M&A integration actions can influence customers' perceptions of the merged organisation and, ultimately, their purchase decisions. We also identify a set of specific individual integration actions that appear to trigger changes in the critical customer relationship variables. Together, the findings contribute to our understanding of the precise mechanisms through which M&A can affect customers' purchase decisions and the combining firms' market-related performance. More broadly, consistent with the stakeholder perspective, they reinforce the need to take account of external as well as internal stakeholders when considering the drivers of M&A outcome. Implications are discussed for future research as well as for B2B service industry executives involved in M&A.     

Does it matter where you invest? The impact of foreign direct investments on domestic job creation and destruction

This study examines how foreign direct investment (FDI) affects domestic employment by using unique division-level data of Japanese firms. Contrary to most previous studies focusing on the effect of FDI on net employment growth, we decompose it into job creation (JC) and job destruction (JD) for each individual firm. We find that FDI destination plays an important role: FDI to Asia increases JC, whereas FDI to Europe/North America decreases it; furthermore JD decreases, regardless of FDI destination. A frictional search-and-matching model with heterogeneous jobs can explain the differential effects. The model provides additional predictions on JC and JD by job type, which are also empirically confirmed.     

Inflation and public debt reversals in advanced economies

This paper quantitatively assesses the effects of inflation shocks on the public debt-to-GDP ratio in 19 advanced economies using simulation and estimation approaches. The simulations suggest that 1 percentage point shock to the inflation rate can reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio by about 0.7 percentage points on average across countries, while the estimated impulse responses are a little larger and more persistent. Additional assumptions taking into account financial repression do not necessarily make these effects substantially larger. These results imply that modestly higher inflation, even if accompanied by some financial repression, could reduce the public debt burden only marginally.